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About the Author
Alfred Rolington was formerly CEO of Jane's Information Group, responsible for such publications as Jane's Defense Review and Jane's Police Review, as well as CEO for Oxford Analytica. He has over thirty years' experience of analytical publishing and media companies, producing information and intelligence for commerce, law enforcement, the, military and government. He has written about and given lectures on intelligence and strategic planning to Cambridge, Oxford, and Harvard Universities, and to organisations such as Thomson Reuters, the CIA, SIS (MI6), NATO Headquarters, and GCHQ.
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Product details
Paperback: 196 pages
Publisher: Oxford University Press, Usa; 1 edition (February 8, 2013)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0199654328
ISBN-13: 978-0199654321
Product Dimensions:
6.1 x 0.4 x 9.1 inches
Shipping Weight: 12.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
5.0 out of 5 stars
3 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#1,494,794 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
There are many books available that present an overview of current approaches to intelligence analysis and the intelligence cycle. However, what is missing is a detailed analysis of how to modernize these current approaches to handle a much different global landscape that is rapidly evolving due to, among many factors, technological advancement.Fortunately, Strategic Intelligence for the 21st Century by Alfred Rolington presents a much needed forward-looking understanding on the future of strategic intelligence. This includes how to improve today's analytical methods to address tomorrow's challenges. This book persuasively articulates how current intelligence functions and structures, including analytical methods and practices, require re-tooling to handle tomorrow's challenges. Challenges that are being led by exogenous technological and social changes that the information revolution is producing on a global scale.This book - which includes a foreword by James Woolsey, the former Director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency - is structured into three parts. The first part presents today's methods and practices, which are a product of yesterday's global landscape. The second part discusses the many changes taking place, the driving forces behind these changes, and the unrealized potential of how much information is truly now available (the deep web). The third part dissects the traditional intelligence model in greater depth, including its application in businesses and law enforcement settings.Additionally, the third part is essential as it provides a new methodology to handle the challenges discussed throughout the book. The new methodology introduced focuses on producing improved intelligence products with a better understanding of the underlying causes/issues to reduce intelligence failure. In particular, the book discusses the mosaic network model that includes a networked organizational structure and a horizon-scanning set of processes. This section elaborates on the changes to the intelligence process that are necessary in the macro (organizational structure) and micro (role of the analyst) aspects. The book concludes with a presentation of the new intelligence model, which is a modern method for the challenges of today and tomorrow.A well-recognized leader in the field of open source intelligence, Alfred Rolington (who was the CEO of Jane's Information Group) presents a persuasive case with practical recommendations to modernize current approaches that will require breaking from traditional models. This book is highly recommended for those learning about intelligence analysis or seasoned analysts looking towards the future to apply new methods that addresses the modern global landscape.
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This book provides a wide-ranging overview of the history and current state of intelligence - mostly secret intelligence, but also business intelligence - and ends with a provocative argument on how intelligence ought to be reformed.The book is in three parts. The first part covers intelligence-related definitions and background, including the intelligence cycle, intelligence sources, and the history of intelligence. This could have done with some reorganization (perhaps chronologically?) but the book aims to address topics useful for the reader's understanding of the field of intelligence studies widely rather than deeply so it is not hard to follow.The second part is a briefing on some current issues facing the modern intelligence practitioner, including propaganda, conspiracies, economic globalization, the internet, and culture (especially cultural bias). Again, the treatment of topics is quick and wide-ranging.The third and final part of the book sets out proposals for intelligence reform (after a short review of some more background, e.g. on intelligence supervision and business intelligence). These reform proposals are radical, seeking to address the challenges of the information age. Mainly, the `mosaic method' capitalizes on information technologies in order to integrate the exploding range of open-source information with the secret intelligence that is the traditional focus of intelligence agencies.To provide a concrete example, a police force using a `mosaic' or `network' approach might, for instance, deploy a countrywide information technology system such that if `officer Bob' made a routine traffic stop of a person who was a suspected mafia member, `Bob' would be alerted to the organized crime task force's analysis of the person's possible role. Moreover, any observations `officer Bob' made during the stop would in turn be used to flesh out the person's profile on the organized crime task force's analysis of the mafia organization.The book's arguments for such `mosaic' approaches to intelligence make sense - these enhance the understanding of decision-makers (the intelligence `customer') by putting secret intelligence into context; these methods help intelligence analysts `connect the dots' on apparently unrelated issues or individuals; and these approaches use IT systems to turn `footsoldiers' who do routine work (like `officer Bob') into intelligence assets.Having recently seen the movie Zero Dark Thirty, I could grasp this argument - in the film, the main breakthrough in the hunt for Osama bin Laden comes from linking intelligence provided by prisoners with a long-overlooked message from the government of Morocco received years earlier. This is depicted, in the film, as a stroke of luck. It is the kind of thing a `mosaic' or `networked' approach might turn into a regular occurrence.I, personally, read the book from the perspective of a person working in corporate strategy. Hence the first two parts (and first chapters of the third part), which essentially cover context, included much that was new to me. Readers who are intelligence specialists will probably want to focus on the book's final two chapters, which contain the main `mosaic method' and `network approach' arguments.Overall, as a business reader, I found the background sections, which take up most of the book, informative. And when a topic was dull, it was over quickly - no treatment of a topic lasts longer than about two pages, so it is a quick read. Some topic highlights include Machiavelli's The Prince, the dawn of human language, Clinton's fascination with "The Coming Anarchy", and the Gunpowder Plot - which illustrates the range. I felt the organization of these parts could have been better. For instance, Sun Tzu's Art of War follows, rather than precedes, the rise of social media, which for me, as a (perhaps excessively) organized person, was disorienting.The third part, which is the truly novel element of the book, is intriguing. From my business perspective, it parallels what many corporate strategy planning departments are doing (for instance, I have recently worked with a company whose strategy department has begun to deliver its main `intelligence product' to the firm's senior executives as an interactive iPad app).That said, I was left wishing that the book had focused more on the last two chapters. These chapters felt to me like the beginning of an argument, rather than the end. The case for adopting these radical new methods is implicit in the earlier chapters, but could have been made much more explicit - for instance, by showing how recent intelligence failures could have been avoided using the `mosaic method', or by showing how intelligence failures are more likely in the future as a result of the trends discussed. The advantages of the mosaic method would also have been more clear if illustrated with more detailed case studies - I realize this would be hard to do without providing examples of some secret intelligence to show how it would be put in context.Also, possible objections to these new methods are not addressed. For me, the obvious question is counter-espionage. The `mosaic' and `network' strategies seem well-suited to address the modern threat of `disorganized crime', e.g. self-starting terrorist networks. But wouldn't these approaches create vulnerabilities to organized crime networks (or enemy states)? E.g., does the mafia need to corrupt only a single police officer in order to monitor everything the police knows about it? Presumably these issues can be addressed, but it would be interesting to know how.In sum, I found the book an intriguing and useful introduction to the field of intelligence, and a thought-provoking exposition on the potential of `mosaic methods'. I was intrigued enough to hope for a more closely-argued and case-rich exposition in a sequel.
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Juli 28, 2016
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