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The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, by Richard Duncan
Download The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, by Richard Duncan
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Review
Posterity may remember The Dollar Crisis as a seminal book in the field of 21st century economics. Indeed, rarely has a book offered such a grim yet, well argued view of the current economic situation facing the world.-- Steven Irvine, FinanceAsia Duncan writes like a man who’s already seen tomorrow. -- James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer I held a class for about 150 people on the book entitled "The Dollar Crisis," authored by Richard Duncan. If you want to better understand why the real estate bubble bust and the crash of the dollar will probably lead to a prolonged recession, you may want to read this book sooner rather than later. In a nutshell, we really do not have a real estate bubble... the world is in a currency bubble. In other words, the governments of the world have printed too much "funny" money and cash will soon turn to trash. Even if you are not in real estate or are saving dollars, you may want to read this book to find out what you need to invest in now, before the bubble bursts. If you are in stocks and mutual funds, you definitely want to read this book.-- Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad I would like every one of my subscribers to click on to Amazon.com and buy a new book that has just been published entitled, “The Dollar Crisis, Causes, Consequences, Cures.” The book costs around twenty bucks and is worth ten times that amount. The author, Richard Duncan has a great background and is as smart as they come. He explains why he sees a crashing dollar and a severe recession coming up in the US – plus a world recession. This is no wild-eyed guru, this is a guy who knows what he’s talking about and a guy who understands money and the world monetary system – he’s worked for both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Please buy this book!-- Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters Richard Duncan crisply explains why payback time for years of credit excesses, payments imbalances and securitized sub-par lending is imminent. Mr Greenspan, your time is up. --Philip Bowring, International Herald Tribune Richard Duncan’s excellent book… we cannot recommend it enough.-- Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning Richard Duncan… is one of the brightest financial analysts I know. Richard is the author of one of my favorite books called The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures.-- John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline For a preview of how it might play out, consult Richard Duncan’s recently revised book, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures. Just try to sleep after digesting its thesis that the world’s biggest economy is looking like a huge and growing Ponzi scheme.--William Pesek Jr., International Herald Tribune
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From the Inside Flap
"Posterity may remember The Dollar Crisis as a seminal book in the field of 21st century economics. Indeed, rarely has a book offered such a grim yet, well argued view of the current economic situation facing the world." —Steven Irvine, FinanceAsia "Duncan writes like a man who's already seen tomorrow." —James Grant, Grant's Interest Rate Observer "I held a class for about 150 people on the book entitled "The Dollar Crisis," authored by Richard Duncan. If you want to better understand why the real estate bubble bust and the crash of the dollar will probably lead to a prolonged recession, you may want to read this book sooner rather than later. In a nutshell, we really do not have a real estate bubble... the world is in a currency bubble. In other words, the governments of the world have printed too much "funny" money and cash will soon turn to trash. Even if you are not in real estate or are saving dollars, you may want to read this book to find out what you need to invest in now, before the bubble bursts. If you are in stocks and mutual funds, you definitely want to read this book." —Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad "I would like every one of my subscribers to click on to Amazon.com and buy a new book that has just been published entitled, The Dollar Crisis, Causes, Consequences, Cures. The book costs around twenty bucks and is worth ten times that amount. The author, Richard Duncan has a great background and is as smart as they come. He explains why he sees a crashing dollar and a severe recession coming up in the plus a world recession. This is no wild-eyed guru, this is a guy who knows what he's talking about and a guy who understands money and the world monetary system – he's worked for both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Please buy this book!" —Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters "Richard Duncan crisply explains why payback time for years of credit excesses, payments imbalances and securitized sub-par lending is imminent. Mr Greenspan, your time is up." —International Herald Tribune "Richard Duncan's excellent book… we cannot recommend it enough." —Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning "Richard Duncan... is one of the brightest financial analysts I know. Richard is the author of one of my favorite books called The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures." —John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline "For a preview of how it might play out, consult Richard Duncan's recently revised book, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures. Just try to sleep after digesting its thesis that the world's biggest economy is looking like a huge and growing Ponzi scheme." —William Pesek Jr., International Herald Tribune
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Product details
Paperback: 288 pages
Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (June 22, 2005)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 9780470821701
ISBN-13: 978-0470821701
ASIN: 0470821701
Product Dimensions:
6 x 1.1 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.1 out of 5 stars
88 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#465,808 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Wonderful read. The author has lots of stats & references, which is essential in an opinion-based book like this (in my view). It's great to have a viewpoint, but if you can't reference facts objectively, it's a rant and I likely wouldn't read it. This book, however, referenced IMF figures, and had lots of charts that were objectively prepared. Also, the author was dead on right with his predictions of a financial problem with the GSEs. This was an amazingly correct call. I would say the appeal would be for finance & investment community. You'd need to be comfortable with the financial institutions and players, otherwise his references may seem arcane and spurious. Right now, with the dollar going up, it's a good time for the author to write a follow up book, as clearly the dollar crisis has not happened the way the author writes. However, given his prescient call on the GSEs, a follow up book on what's happened to the dollar as of late would be a worthwhile read. Also, event with the dollar ascendancy of late, this book is a good read, as it provides a well researched alternative perspective.
Since the breakdown of Bretton Woods in the early 1970's and the end of the gold standard, the dollar has become the international reserve currency. The 20 years prior to 1970 international reserves increased only about 55%, but since 1970, with the adoption of the dollar standard, reserves have increased over 2,000%. This is primarily a result of US current account deficits, which last year ran about $600 billion - about 3% of GDP. Asian central banks hold about $2 trillion US dollar-denominated reserve assets. This surge in international reserves has created huge imbalances and it is the subject of this book by financial analyst Richard Duncan.The dollar standard has allowed the US to finance incredibly large deficits by printing more dollars. The dollar standard has on the upside ushered in the age of globalization that has allowed Asian economies - first Japan, then the Tigers, and now China - to devolop by exporting to the US without importing equal amounts, leaving Asian central banks with large stockpiles of dollar reserves. And what can Asian central banks do with these reserves? About the only thing they can do is invest in US corporate stocks and bonds, T-bills, and US agency debt such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (We've been enjoying low mortgage rates because the Asian central banks buy up our debt so we can take out more.) And all these investments in return allow US consumers to buy more of their exports - call it vendor financing.According to Duncan, these current account deficits and current account surpluses have already wrought havoc with the world economy: it caused the asset and stock market bubble in Japan in the 1980s; it caused the currency crisis in Malaysia and Thailand in the 1990s (Duncan was an analyst working in Thailand at the time and correctly predicted its occurence); and it is currently fueling the real estate boom in the US.Asia's export-led strategies require that dollar reserves are reinvested in the US; this prevents their currencies from appreciating. Indeed, if the Bank of China or the Bank of Japan were to invest in the Euro or any other currency, the bankers and politicians of those countries would quickly protest because it would drive up their currencies and make their exports less competitive.So then with the US increasing the world's international reserves at a rate of $600 billion a year, everyone is still happy for the time being. Asian countries are growing rapidly and American consumers have endless supplies of credit - using their homes as ATMs - however, this imbalance, unsustainable and in the long run, will precipitate an economic crisis. Even correcting this imbalance, if not done prudently, could precipitate a world economic slowdown.This book was written before the recent decision by China to stop pegging the yuan to the dollar. This was a baby step in the right direction.Duncan's analysis of the problem is very good, his policy recommendations, however, are questionable. He suggests, for example, giving global central bank status to the International Monetary Fund. That's a nonstarter for reasons obvious to Republicans. He also advocates a global minimum wage, giving workers more money to soak up excess supply. I can already hear the critics screaming no "world government."The main problem that needs to be addressed - and Duncan stresses it many times - is that there needs to be a regulatory mechanism in foreign-exchange markets. Central banks intervene in currency markets for their own benefit - such creating an export strategy - instead of looking for ways to smooth global business cycles. China, with its revaluation of its currency, is looking to become a responsible global player - we hope. If the powers that be do not act in concert to coordinate a soft landing of the current imbalances, we will all be heading for some frightening times.
Probably one of the greatest weaknesses in American economic education is ignorance of global macro-economics. This book will serve as an introduction to the topic for many people - some of them with degrees in economics. Duncan's thesis is that the "approaching financial crisis" started when we abandoned the gold standard in the early 20th century. (There's a great story here but he must abbreviate.) It was replaced with the Bretton Woods gold/silver exchange system (largely designed by John Maynard Keynes) which served to keep government spending in check until abandoned during the first Nixon administration. Due to this monetary error, an uncontrolled infusion of global liquidity has caused tremendous imbalances, particularly in countries running trade surpluses. He demonstrates that similar infusions were the proximate cause of the "Great Depression," various major US recessions, the Japanese meltdown and the Asian Tigers' crash. The error is compounding with America's twin deficits and - the end result must be global financial pain as the markets equilibrate. He draws fascinating parallels between global depressions and between individual countries at different times to support his thesis. He also thinks he has a solution that would ease the pain. I think his story holds together pretty well and is supported with believable illustrations. It is the Austrian Economists' story of the business cycle globalized and out of the control of monetarist central bankers. The greatest value to me, and I have read most of the authors he quotes, is that his story provides insights into what central bankers, the IMF, and World Bank were thinking when they took the actions they did. After all, he worked for the IMF "in the belly of the beast" and had first hand local experience in various Asian currency crises. This is no arm chair academic. Sadly, his solutions are not of the same quality as his definition of the problem which I consider excellent. I believe we are witnessing a true paradigm shift where the Western Democracies will no longer retain their enforced pre-eminence in the markets; transportation and communication technologies will act to level the playing field for workers and businesses everywhere. They're catching up out there in the second world as they cast aside their ideological chains and there isn't a darned thing we can do about it. There is no "solution" and I think Duncan would agree. He only hopes to ease the pain of transition. Duncan's notion of a global minimum wage is disappointing given the quality of his first three sections defining the problem - and seems to demonstrate that he doesn't really understand macro-economics after all. Still, the book is is an entertaining bargain and very worth while to read. It has me pawing through abstracts to update the charts and graphs that are now a couple of years out of date. If you are not aware of the fiat money debate, that is - money not fully backed up by something extremely difficult to acquire - and thousands of years in the contest, then this will be a real eye opener for you.
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September 18, 2015
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